农村金融综合改革试验区:瑞安之探索实践

瑞安是“温州模式”的领头雁，自温州金融综合改革试验区获批之后，积极践行农 村金融改革，为全国金融改革提供经验。本文以农村金融组织与农类企业为对象，分别深入调 查实施主体的改革成效与服务对象的金融服务现状，从三维视角研究分析当前农村金融服务 存在的问题与原因，并以此为依据提出改善农村金融服务的对策与建议。     

Impact of electronic road pricing on real estate prices in Singapore

Since 1998, Singapore has had an Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) system set up with a network of toll gantries to tax vehicles entering designated areas in the city center during peak hours. Using the congestion rate hike with effect from November 1, 2010 as an exogenous shock, we test the effects of the ERP rate hike on retail, office and residential real estate prices. The results show that the November 2010 congestion toll rate increases cause a 19% drop in retail real estate prices within the cordon ERP areas relative to retail real estate prices outside the cordon ERP areas. The results are statistically and economically significant. However, the toll rate hike has no significant impact private office and residential real estate within cordoned ERP areas. The robustness and falsification tests could not reject the negative effects associated with the toll rate hike on retail real estate prices.     

数字经济背景下深圳居民消费结构变迁分析

近年来,伴随着我国电商交易规模的不断增加,数字经济蓬勃发展,逐渐成为改善消费环境、促进经济发展的新引擎。同时,数字经济具有很强的网络效应,可以带动居民消费实现转型升级。本文结合2008—2018年的电商交易规模与深圳消费结构相关数据,从衣、食、住、行等方面分析了居民消费结构的变化趋势。本研究认为居民收入增加、商品价格变动、粤港澳大湾区建设等是影响深圳居民消费的重要因素,最后给出实现深圳居民消费结构升级的相关建议。     

Expanding airport capacity of cities under uncertainty: Strategies to mitigate congestion

Airport capacity constraints are increasingly challenging the growth of air traffic. At the same time, decision-making about airport capacity investments is extremely complex, involving trade-offs. This paper’s objective is to optimise a privately owned airport system’s capacity investment decision in a city under demand uncertainty. Next to the investment size, our real options model incorporates the timing of the investment, as well as the cost of congestion. The results reveal that the larger a city’s initial airport capacity, the smaller its investment will relatively be and the lower the occupancy rate threshold at which investment will take place. We also show that, in case of a higher demand growth combined with more demand uncertainty, the city will benefit from a significantly larger investment, but made later at a higher occupancy rate. In this case, cities with a small initial capacity will sometimes even more than double current capacity. Higher airport charges and an increase in non-aeronautical revenues both lead to a later investment in more capacity, due to the increased project attractiveness. An increase in congestion costs results in a larger investment made earlier, in order to eliminate delays. Airport operational cost and capacity holding cost increases both lead to smaller investments.     

互联网平台垄断与低质量陷阱

坚定不移地走高质量发展道路，已经成为各领域发展的共识。然而，随着互联网平台经济的飞速发展，线上市场中的低质量问题也变得愈加突出，相比线下市场，线上市场同类产品不合格率、不达标率、投诉量更高。文章认为平台垄断是低质量陷阱产生的主要原因，超级互联网平台的价格垄断、流量垄断和渠道垄断行为，一方面形成了对低成本实体经济需求的"扩张效应"，即低价垄断迫使实体企业降低产品质量成本；另一方面形成了对高质量产品的"挤出效应"，即流量垄断带来的高额流量费用，迫使实体企业将大部分资金用于线上市场产品营销，挤出了质量创新投入和渠道垄断形成的巨大规模效应，迫使实体企业将低质低价产品打造成为爆款，保障线上市场销量优势。为此，政府部门需要加大对互联网平台恶性价格竞争的监管和处罚力度，督促互联网平台降低实体企业经营成本，强化互联网平台对实体企业的质量赋能作用。     

货币传导异质性与实体经济流动性配置的“马太效应”

货币政策支持实体经济高质量发展的关键在于疏通货币政策传导机制,引导流动性进入重点领域和薄弱环节,因此货币资金的配置效率至关重要。本文基于交互效应面板分位数回归,测度货币政策对实体企业流动性的异质性效应。研究发现:在样本期内,实体经济流动性配置陷入了资金越充裕的企业越易于获得融资,越易于获得融资的企业资金越充裕的窘境。这种流动性配置的“马太效应”具体表现为,货币政策对尾部企业的支持力度不及头部企业的一半;虚拟经济对尾部企业的“分流效应”高达头部企业的3倍,从而强化了流动性配置的失衡。因此,当前密集出台的一系列普惠政策有助于提升流动性配置效率,进一步完善调控模式的关键在于健全现代化金融体系,增强货币政策的靶向性和针对性。     

“Success breeds success” or “Pride goes before a fall”?: Teams and individuals in multi-contest tournaments

We study the impact of progress feedback on players' performance in multi-contest team tournaments, in which team members' efforts are not directly substitutable. In particular, we employ a real-effort laboratory experiment to understand, in a best-of-three tournament, how players' strategic mindsets change when they compete on a team compared to when they compete individually. Our data corroborate the theoretical predictions for teams: Neither a lead nor a lag in the first component contest affects a team's performance in the subsequent contests. In individual tournaments, however, contrary to the theoretical prediction, we observe that leaders perform worse—but laggards perform better—after learning the outcome of the first contest. Our findings offer the first empirical evidence from a controlled laboratory of the impact of progress feedback between team and individual tournaments, and contribute new insights on team incentives.     

Lost in intervention. The Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect on the peseta/dollar real exchange rate (1870–1998)

We have decomposed the peseta/dollar real exchange rate (1870–1998) into its trend and cyclical components and used the former to proxy its time-varying equilibrium. Then, we have compared changes in the equilibrium with changes in the Spanish and the USA productivity differentials to identify years that do not fit with the Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson (HBS) hypothesis. The greatest maladjustment is found in the 1940s and 1950s, decades of strong exchange rate intervention in Spain. Conversely, the link between equilibrium and differentials adjusts to the hypothesis when using the non-intervened peseta/dollar exchange rate on the Tangier black market. These contrasting results back up the idea that exchange rate intervention, so common in developing countries, might explain their scanter evidence in favour of the HBS effect.     

Impact of macroeconomic surprises on the Brazilian yield curve and expected inflation

This study investigates how unexpected announcements in Brazilian and U.S. macroeconomic indicators affect the term structure of nominal interest rates, as well as implicit inflation expectations and real interest rates. Using daily data from March 2005 to December 2012, we employ an extended Vector Error Correction Model to take into account nonstationarity and the long-term equilibrium among different maturities of those curves. We found empirical evidence that macroeconomic surprises, domestic (Brazilian) and external (U.S. American), which lead the market to believe that there might be a higher risk of inflation or an overheated economy, raise nominal interest rates, implicit expected inflation and real interest rates. Surprisingly, in relation to the efficient-market hypothesis, we found that some macroeconomic surprises have a lagged effect on the yield curves. We also tested the impact of the global financial crisis of 2007–09 and found that the crisis affected significantly the direction and magnitude of the responses to macroeconomic news.